Expand our imagination during this relaxing New Year's holidays

This is an English traslation of this entry. (新年は1年の抱負じゃなくて3年、5年の展望を考えよう - LIFEHACK STREET 小山龍介ブログ)


It is quite difficult to make a prediction of the year. For example, predictions regarding international disputes changes drastically by small and minor incidents. Even for the economy, it is hard to assess the impact of the consumption tax in Japan hike as it is often hard to conclude whether it will have a minimum impact or a large impact. 

How about if we try extending the single year period to a three year period? If it is for a three-year period, the individual impacts of any single event will be minimized on a macro scale. This goes the same for a five-year period. If it is a ten-year period, it will be easier to make predictions as we will be observing long-term trends instead. 

In other words, for predictions of a single year period, individual events are much more likely to have greater impacts, resulting in trends deviating from our initial predictions. Once we extend the observation period however, impacts of individual events are reduced and hence we are able to make a much more accurate prediction rather than just a rough prediction. 

Speaking of which, it is also important that we not only think about our aspirations for the year ahead on New Year's Day, but also the outlook and flow for the next three years ahead. 

This kind of vision however, cannot be seen in our daily life. So I guess it might be good for us to expand our imagination during this relaxing New Year's holidays.

(Translation by GENGO)