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If we think about it through backcasting, we can see that a big change has already started in 2014

English

On the other hand, making predictions for a year is difficult because we must use forecasting in a step-by-step fashion. Because it is the near future, we tend to predict it with the assumption that the past will continue in the same way. We do not consider unexpected events.

Anyone would consider something like an unexpected earthquake happening in the next 100 years. Short-term predictions are difficult because such unexpected events are difficult to consider. The complete failure of economic forecasts just before the Lehman Shock was because of this.

Such a tendency applies to predictions of an individual's year as well. In other words, we tend to make predictions with the assumption that past circumstances will continue and that nothing new will happen.

What we need in order to dispel this harmful effect is an approach of backcasting from the future. This is the method of imagining the distant future and going from there to think about what should be done in 2014. In this case, it is possible to imagine the major earthquake that will almost certainly occur in the next 100 years, and even to prepare for it. It becomes possible to include very unexpected events.

For example, in my case, I imagine developing a business overseas in the future. I am thinking that I want to fulfill the role of introducing other countries to the methods based in Japanese culture. When I backcast from this kind of future, it becomes obvious what I should do. (Such as learning English and transmitting information overseas.)

If you are thinking it seems like there will be no promising new developments in 2014, you ought to give this a try. From the perspective of further in the future, even a year that seems uneventful might include predictive events or the beginning of preparations for something.

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